PW AND SERGIO THINGS TO LOOK FOR

Things that drove the first fight

1. Has PW learned to use his jab to control distance or can Sergio control it with his feet?

2. Is PW throwing 4+ punch combinations or not?

3. Is Sergio's right hook getting inside PW's left?

4. Martinez requires enormous, continuous energy and precision, is he properly trained?

5. Will the Martinez corner provide a dramatic edge in tactical advice?

6. Both guys hurt the other, yet neither committed to going for a KO, will that change?

7. Neither guy did much bodywork early. Will that change?

8. The Martinez uppercut did not appear until the second half of the fight. Expect to see it earlier.

9. PW didn't do it much, but when he hooked off the jab he landed

10. Will Sergio come out throwing the left to the body, right hook to the head combination?

11. Is Martinez's stamina going to hold up?

12. Boxing tradition says that a new champion becomes a better fighter by virtue of him becoming champion. Will that be true for Sergio Martinez?

Some bigger picture thoughts

Rarely do 35 year old fighters perform better than they did their last time out. Martinez's style REQUIRES optimal fitness and timing. If Martinez really did struggle with his training and weight? He will get knocked out. There is a likelihood PW performs relatively better here.

The above might argue for PW fighting a pressure fight. BUT! In the last fight the more frenetic the action? The better Martinez did. PW might be better served by fighting a slower, more composed pace that maximizes the impact of his jab, or his multiple jabs, and makes Martinez figure out how to initiate the action. It might make for a more pedestrian fight, but I think it would increase the odds of a Williams victory.

Martinez and his corner are clearly better tacticians than Williams in his corner. So despite my comments above the Argentines may have tricks in their bag to account for everything I've laid out.

It is gonna be fun!

Where am I wrong and what did I miss?

marbleheadmaui wrote:Things that drove the first fight

1. Has PW learned to use his jab to control distance or can Sergio control it with his feet?

2. Is PW throwing 4+ punch combinations or not?

3. Is Sergio's right hook getting inside PW's left?

4. Martinez requires enormous, continuous energy and precision, is he properly trained?

5. Will the Martinez corner provide a dramatic edge in tactical advice?

6. Both guys hurt the other, yet neither committed to going for a KO, will that change?

7. Neither guy did much bodywork early. Will that change?

8. The Martinez uppercut did not appear until the second half of the fight. Expect to see it earlier.

9. PW didn't do it much, but when he hooked off the jab he landed

10. Will Sergio come out throwing the left to the body, right hook to the head combination?

11. Is Martinez's stamina going to hold up?

12. Boxing tradition says that a new champion becomes a better fighter by virtue of him becoming champion. Will that be true for Sergio Martinez?

Some bigger picture thoughts

Rarely do 35 year old fighters perform better than they did their last time out. Martinez's style REQUIRES optimal fitness and timing. If Martinez really did struggle with his training and weight? He will get knocked out. There is a likelihood PW performs relatively better here.

The above might argue for PW fighting a pressure fight. BUT! In the last fight the more frenetic the action? The better Martinez did. PW might be better served by fighting a slower, more composed pace that maximizes the impact of his jab, or his multiple jabs, and makes Martinez figure out how to initiate the action. It might make for a more pedestrian fight, but I think it would increase the odds of a Williams victory.

Martinez and his corner are clearly better tacticians than Williams in his corner. So despite my comments above the Argentines may have tricks in their bag to account for everything I've laid out.

It is gonna be fun!

Where am I wrong and what did I miss?

I think Martinez/Cyclops team is ready for a virtuoso performance. PW will have some moments, but my wife's favorite fighter is going to win this fight with clean varied punching.

First fight, Cyclops would ask for specific shots to focus on during rounds. Left to the body. Great job, now use the sneaky lead left to the head. Bam-both worked to perfection.

while that fight had alot of action, I see PW being less willing than normal to mix it up in the rematch. There is a reason PW wasn't going total preying mantis on Martinez. Martinez blasted his ass. For the first time in his career he felt, "holy shit, this guy can hurt me bad."

captainanddew wrote:
I think Martinez/Cyclops team is ready for a virtuoso performance. PW will have some moments, but my wife's favorite fighter is going to win this fight with clean varied punching.

First fight, Cyclops would ask for specific shots to focus on during rounds. Left to the body. Great job, now use the sneaky lead left to the head. Bam-both worked to perfection.

while that fight had alot of action, I see PW being less willing than normal to mix it up in the rematch. There is a reason PW wasn't going total preying mantis on Martinez. Martinez blasted his ass. For the first time in his career he felt, "holy shit, this guy can hurt me bad."

Like I said, boxing wisdom would say you're right...but I wonder. I think Martinez needs to be in tip-top shape to succeed. Is he?

I picked Paul in this and still believe he takes this. Paul will need to wear down Sergio, who might've had some trouble with weight and was tired last fight. How Paul looks against a slicker southpaw with a camp designed for that type of fighter is also very important. I don't think Sergio likes pressure but can deal with it with adjustments.

I will go with Paul 115-111 but a very entertaining fight.

UBeeg9cats wrote:I picked Paul in this and still believe he takes this. Paul will need to wear down Sergio, who might've had some trouble with weight and was tired last fight. How Paul looks against a slicker southpaw with a camp designed for that type of fighter is also very important. I don't think Sergio likes pressure but can deal with it with adjustments.
I will go with Paul 115-111 but a very entertaining fight.

Good point. I forgot these two came together late last time.

Im too chicken as it is to step into a boxing ring but I would've never fought Sergio after training for Kelly concrete Nikes Pavlik.

UBeeg9cats wrote:Im too chicken as it is to step into a boxing ring but I would've never fought Sergio after training for Kelly concrete Nikes Pavlik.

Kinda like training for Foreman and then fighting Ali, right?

The way P-Willie wins this fight, is simply doing more of what he did in the first fight, but avoid getting hit as much. He also needs to use his size/height/reach advantage, keep the pressure on Martinez, and throw punches in bunches.

The way Sergio wins this fight is by getting off first and/or beating P-Willie to the punch, and putting some serious hurt on him. Because of P-Willie's work rate, it's going to be hard for Martinez to win a decision, he needs to take the judges out of it by at least scoring some KDs, or at best a KO/TKO.

this to me is the epitome of a pick em fight.so many intangibles,so many differing perceptions,especially regarding who can take what out of the first fight.the thing martinez has in his corner is that after williams he moved up & decisively beat pavlik.it was the same when he fought williams,most thought as substitute he was just a name for williams to add to his resume.
guess my point is that as his competition gets tougher,so has martinez.not sure same can be said for williams

Ring wrote:The way P-Willie wins this fight, is simply doing more of what he did in the first fight, but avoid getting hit as much. He also needs to use his size/height/reach advantage, keep the pressure on Martinez, and throw punches in bunches.

The way Sergio wins this fight is by getting off first and/or beating P-Willie to the punch, and putting some serious hurt on him. Because of P-Willie's work rate, it's going to be hard for Martinez to win a decision, he needs to take the judges out of it by at least scoring some KDs, or at best a KO/TKO.

How can P will do what he does and not get hit? He stays inside and doesn't get out too fast. He also doesn't use his natural advantages. I got Williams in this one but I think he gets hit a lot.

but ring his conundrum is...to do more of what he did in the first fight,he is going to get hit more.the question for me is"is he prepared to cop more to dish out more?"is he ready to win the fight,not just win the boxing match?

hardcorebee24 wrote:

Ring wrote:The way P-Willie wins this fight, is simply doing more of what he did in the first fight, but avoid getting hit as much. He also needs to use his size/height/reach advantage, keep the pressure on Martinez, and throw punches in bunches.

The way Sergio wins this fight is by getting off first and/or beating P-Willie to the punch, and putting some serious hurt on him. Because of P-Willie's work rate, it's going to be hard for Martinez to win a decision, he needs to take the judges out of it by at least scoring some KDs, or at best a KO/TKO.

How can P will do what he does and not get hit? He stays inside and doesn't get out too fast. He also doesn't use his natural advantages. I got Williams in this one but I think he gets hit a lot.

Good point hardcore, perhaps by not blocking punches with face?

Ring wrote:

hardcorebee24 wrote:

Ring wrote:The way P-Willie wins this fight, is simply doing more of what he did in the first fight, but avoid getting hit as much. He also needs to use his size/height/reach advantage, keep the pressure on Martinez, and throw punches in bunches.

The way Sergio wins this fight is by getting off first and/or beating P-Willie to the punch, and putting some serious hurt on him. Because of P-Willie's work rate, it's going to be hard for Martinez to win a decision, he needs to take the judges out of it by at least scoring some KDs, or at best a KO/TKO.

How can P will do what he does and not get hit? He stays inside and doesn't get out too fast. He also doesn't use his natural advantages. I got Williams in this one but I think he gets hit a lot.

Good point hardcore, perhaps by not blocking punches with face?

I don't know how he does that, his face is enormous!!!!

shakefree wrote:but ring his conundrum is...to do more of what he did in the first fight,he is going to get hit more.the question for me is"is he prepared to cop more to dish out more?"is he ready to win the fight,not just win the boxing match?

My guess is Williams will be bringing it from the opening bell, much like what he did in Williams-Quintana II, the difference is, unlike Quintana, the much tougher Sergio will weather the on-slaught, and fire right back. This is gonna be a hell of a fight tonight.

marbleheadmaui wrote:The above might argue for PW fighting a pressure fight. BUT! In the last fight the more frenetic the action? The better Martinez did. PW might be better served by fighting a slower, more composed pace that maximizes the impact of his jab, or his multiple jabs, and makes Martinez figure out how to initiate the action. It might make for a more pedestrian fight, but I think it would increase the odds of a Williams victory.

Where am I wrong and what did I miss?

I think PW needs to be in rhythm. Usually he bobs up and down when he's feeling it (bad tendency but one he's comfortable with). When he came out and tried to box in the Cintron fight he looked bad. It was clear that he was being cautious and un-PW-like. When he started to be himself, the action in the fight started to pick up. He wasn't necessarily on a path to victory, but he looked more confident and we as fans looked like we were finally in for a fun fight.

I don't think a pedestrian fight would help PW. He doesn't know how to fight pedestrian and experimenting in a mega fight is always a big risk. It's not about what PW should be able to do, it's what he can do. And I don't know if he can change his body-mechanics/style to how we think they should be given his ability. For better or worse he has to fight a pressure fight because getting off to a slow start could ruin his night.

i think if pw"brings it from the opening bell",it's a recipe for disater,martinez will dismantle him.his best chance is to not be predictable,do what's least expected.it's a pick-em fight but i just think martinez will get the job done.he's used to winning in adversity.

shakefree wrote:i think if pw"brings it from the opening bell",it's a recipe for disater,martinez will dismantle him.his best chance is to not be predictable,do what's least expected.it's a pick-em fight but i just think martinez will get the job done.he's used to winning in adversity.

I hope you're right shake, i'd love to see it.

i hope i am too ring,otherwise for the next 2 weeks my wallet will be superfluous

Ring wrote:The way P-Willie wins this fight, is simply doing more of what he did in the first fight, but avoid getting hit as much. He also needs to use his size/height/reach advantage, keep the pressure on Martinez, and throw punches in bunches.

The way Sergio wins this fight is by getting off first and/or beating P-Willie to the punch, and putting some serious hurt on him. Because of P-Willie's work rate, it's going to be hard for Martinez to win a decision, he needs to take the judges out of it by at least scoring some KDs, or at best a KO/TKO.

What makes this a great fight is I'm not sure either of the bold will really happen.

Ring wrote:

shakefree wrote:but ring his conundrum is...to do more of what he did in the first fight,he is going to get hit more.the question for me is"is he prepared to cop more to dish out more?"is he ready to win the fight,not just win the boxing match?

My guess is Williams will be bringing it from the opening bell, much like what he did in Williams-Quintana II, the difference is, unlike Quintana, the much tougher Sergio will weather the on-slaught, and fire right back. This is gonna be a hell of a fight tonight.

I HOPE he does that because I think it sets the fight up to have a bit of a different dynamic and yet still be thrilling. I am fired up!

marbleheadmaui wrote:
I HOPE he does that because I think it sets the fight up to have a bit of a different dynamic and yet still be thrilling. I am fired up!

His only shot IMO, he was getting out boxed by Cintron until he turned up the pressure